The Eyewall

In brief: Today we update on a disturbance east of Bermuda that is flailing a bit and has a low probability of development. We also take a deep dive into the flooding that hammered southwestern Connecticut on Sunday. Tropical Atlantic We begin today in the Atlantic, where the odds of open Atlantic tropical development have ... See Full Post

In brief: The Atlantic is in a very, very quiet place tropically, and that should mostly continue. There is some potential for an open Atlantic system out there in a week, which we discuss below. It’s September 12, 2026, and for the hurricane season to date, in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), the Atlantic ... See Full Post

In brief: Tropical Storm Edouard has about 8 to 12 hours left over water to intensify, and it will make an effort to do so. But it will run out of time later, bringing some gusty winds, surge, and heavy rain to parts of Louisiana and Texas. We discuss the situation in detail below. The ... See Full Post

In brief: Invest 97L continues to hold its own in the Gulf, with some further increasing potential that it may develop into a depression or named storm before coming ashore in Texas or Louisiana on Tuesday. The heavy rainfall threat, especially north of Houston and east of I-35 seems to also be increasing some. This ... See Full Post

In brief: Invest 96L is holding its own in the Atlantic, and in fact that’s probably all we’re going to get out of it for the next several days. About a week from now, the story could get a bit more interesting, so we explain why and the things to watch in the days ahead. ... See Full Post