greyenlightenment

With “AI regulatory capture” dominating the headlines and discourse online, a smaller but still important story is the failure of the Clarity Act gain the necessary 60 Senate votes to pass to the next stage, effectively killing it: Washington — The Senate on Tuesday failed to advance a sweeping cryptocurrency bill known as the Clarity… Continue reading The Clarity Act dies–right again

With the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem apparently solved, and potential solutions to one or two of the remaining problems on the horizon, it’s an understatement to say AI is good at math. AI has gotten so good, it has even called into doubt if math a profession can survive, with a collective of Field Medalists… Continue reading The final frontier for AI: writing

A couple weeks ago, this tweet stood out to me: I think one thing Paul Graham underweights when he advises people on how to write is the fact that sometimes you need cleverness to earn status with the reader. Paul has earned status by making a ton of money. Him writing simply is like Zuckerberg… Continue reading How much of “write simply” is just survivorship bias?

So far I have been right about almost everything: Item #1: On Polymarket, the odds of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal has plunged even more. This has been one of my most profitable trades ever in terms of ROI. The “no” contract surged from 18 to 84 cents in about 2.5 months,… Continue reading The daily view 9/10/2026 Polymarket huge Iran win, AI vs Writing, AI vs Math, and Hedging

In Ed West’s viral post, “Doomscrolling ourselves to death,” the contrast between Truman and Trump is interesting: Marriott contrasts Harry Truman, who ruled America during the peak of literacy, with the current incumbent. Truman ‘was the son of a livestock dealer in Independence, Missouri. And yet as an earnest and bespectacled schoolboy he spent great… Continue reading The Optimality Thesis: Why America Doesn’t Need a Smart President