Nebius has surged over 200% in a year on the back of marquee deals and a $37.5 billion backlog, yet three customers still drive nearly 60% of revenue and a $20 billion capex bill looms. The setup has two very different endings.
NVIDIA-backed Nebius Group raised its 2026 contracted power outlook from 3 GW to 4 GW after reporting 684% year-over-year revenue growth. The company doubled capex guidance to $20-25 billion, signaling that AI compute demand, driven by agentic workloads, is outstripping infrastructure supply. Analysts are split on whether the capital intensity will pay off.
NVIDIA-backed Nebius Group raised its 2026 contracted power outlook from 3 GW to 4 GW after reporting 684% year-over-year revenue growth. The company doubled capex guidance to $20-25 billion, signaling that AI compute demand, driven by agentic workloads, is outstripping infrastructure supply. Analysts are split on whether the capital intensity will pay off.