Q&A: ‘Godzilla-level’ El Niño is causing extreme weather – our environment writers answer your questions – live

Guardian reporters Jonathan Watts and Gabrielle Canon are online answering your questions on climate and extreme weather from what to expect this winter in the UK to the increasing risk of natural disasters. Lilypad3 asks: How has this El Niño been affected by climate breakdown and how likely is it that the next El Niño will be more extreme? Jon says: That is a key question, though disconcertingly scientists are not yet agreed on a definitive answer. I recently asked this to Prof Mat Collins, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter and the author of some of the world’s most important climate reports. He replied: “The easiest way to think about this is that they (climate change and El Niño) are two separate things that layer on top of each other. So if you’ve already got drought conditions as a result of global warming, then an El Niño is going to exacerbate that. The harder question is how they interact with each other.” Gabrielle says: Even without a direct connection, dangerous tipping points - especially in areas or in eco systems already pushed close to the brink because of global heating - could face further strain due to this year’s El Niño. It could also increase the chances of compounding extremes - weather events that, when combined, create more catastrophe and test response and recovery systems. For example, we can think about the wildfires that are on the rise due to heating and aridity linked to global heating. In areas where El Nino produces greater chances of heavy rain - like in Los Angeles California, which is still recovering from the 2025 tragic firestorm that destroyed more than 16,000 homes and businesses - burn scars will be at greater risk from debris flows and landslides. Gabrielle says: Niño produces more of an underlying signal that can impact global weather systems rather than a direct cause and effect. But forecasters know a great deal about what could take shape but there’s still uncertainty about what exactly will unfold. For example, in California where I am based, El Niños in the past have correlated with much stronger rain storms in the southern part of the state, but it’s unclear when or how many storms will form. El Niño increases the risks, but there are no guarantees. There are some associations, however, that are stronger than others. Again, going back to California, scientists are fairly confident that sea level rise will have an impact up and down the coast. El Niño has also turned up the dial on the Pacific hurricane season, which is already packing a punch, and will increase global temperatures. But as El Niño strengthens - and especially if it smashes through records as it’s expected to - there is still a fair degree of uncertainty. Continue reading...